One in 11 people are dealing with severe levels of food insecurity, which the United Nations reports poses “grave risks to their health and well-being.” But how can we prepare for – or better, prevent – further deteriorations in communities facing this chronic problem? Monitoring situations and forecasting where things are set to get worse is crucial to saving lives.
That is why Action Against Hunger is working to identify the early warning signs of rising hunger and malnutrition. By forecasting hazards and predicting likely emergencies, we can work with our partners to pinpoint when and where to focus our resources for the greatest impact.
In Eastern Africa, Modeling Early Risk Indicators to Anticipate Malnutrition (MERIAM) is Action Against Hunger’s latest early warning tool under development. It aims to forecast elevated malnutrition prevalence rates and caseloads up to 12 months in advance, significantly longer than the 3-4 months projection horizons offered by existing systems. It complements other analytical processes by zooming in on the condition of children under five, who are particularly vulnerable to malnutrition, and enabling more frequent updates of how the situation is set to evolve. Pilots are currently under development in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and South Sudan.
In Central America, Action Against Hunger’s PREDISAN tool is monitoring and nowcasting food security across Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador. The platform utilizes advanced machine learning tools, satellite imagery and remote sensing to identify the most vulnerable areas and estimate the number of people at various levels of food insecurity. Together with DATAface, it helps to better understand which populations are most affected by food insecurity so we can take targeted action.
