An international team of researchers has conducted the most comprehensive global-to-local analysis to date on long COVID risk, using disability data from the height of the pandemic to identify vulnerable populations. Drawing on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 framework, the study examined years lived with disability (YLDs) caused by COVID-19 across 920 locations during 2020 and 2021. The results reveal that YLDs may serve as an early indicator of long COVID risk-particularly in areas where post-COVID conditions remain underreported.

Disability-related data may serve as an early warning indicator for long COVID. We found that many communities, especially in low-resource settings, were already experiencing a disproportionately high burden of prolonged symptoms. Without intervention, this might translate into years of long COVID consequences that go largely untracked."

Dan Shan, co-first author of the study

The study uncovered alarming disparities. In 2021, eight of the top ten countries with the highest age-standardized YLD rates were low-, lower-middle-, or middle-income nations, such as Mozambique, Malawi, Ethiopia, and Iraq. These locations often lack robust health systems, making it harder to diagnose, report, and manage post-acute COVID conditions. In addition, women aged 20 and above were found to bear a significantly higher burden than men, consistent with trends reported in other long COVID research.