Afghanistan faces a harsh winter at a moment of heightened vulnerability and escalating humanitarian need. After multiple years of compounding shocks, families have exhausted nearly every option they once relied on to survive.

Afghanistan is seeing an escalation of insecurity on its borders— increased fighting on the eastern and southern frontier with Pakistan, and ongoing violence in Iran.4 Since 26 February, violence has escalated across the Durand Line, triggering displacement of approximately 20 000 families across the Eastern, Southeastern and Southern regions.5 Between 26 February to 2 March 2026, there were at least 146 civilian casualties in Afghanistan, with 42 people killed, and 104 injured, including women and children.6 On the other side of the country, on Afghanistan’s western border, violence in Iran is sparking fears of a surge in returnees.

In 2026, 17.4 million people—over one-third of the population—are facing crisis or emergency levels of hunger. A sharp increase of three million people from last year marks one of the most severe lean seasons in decades. Acute malnutrition is also worsening, impacting an estimated 3.7 million children under five and 1.2 million pregnant and breastfeeding women in 2026.